Moon × UAP
Lunar Phase
Analysis
Does lunar phase influence when UAPs are reported? This high-power analysis covers 147,628 UAP sightings — the largest lunar correlation study on this platform. With a dataset this size, even minor deviations from uniform distribution become statistically detectable.
Peak UAP reporting occurs during Waning Crescent at 13.1% of all sightings. The least active phase is Waxing Gibbous at 11.7%. The spread between peak and trough is 1.4 percentage points.
With n = 147,628, the chi-square test rejects the null hypothesis with high confidence. However, the practical effect size is modest — the distribution is close to uniform. Statistical significance here reflects the large sample size rather than a dramatic real-world pattern.
Expected baseline: 12.5% per phase. With 147,628 records, small deviations are statistically detectable.
The 1.4-point spread between peak (13.1%) and trough (11.7%) is statistically significant but practically modest. The distribution is close to uniform — no single phase dominates reporting by a meaningful margin.
Full Moon vs New Moon: Full Moon logs 17,575 reports (11.9%) vs New Moon at 19,145 (13.0%). The New Moon records 1,570 more reports. If visibility drove reporting, the Full Moon would dominate — the data suggests otherwise.
Nighttime share: 66.2% of UAP sightings (97,764 records) occur between 8 PM and 6 AM local time — suggesting a substantial portion of reports come from daytime observations or records lacking precise time data.
Phase calculation — Julian Date method referenced to Jan 6 2000 18:14 UTC. Phase angle (0–360°) derived from elapsed synodic periods of 29.53 days. No external API.
Phase segmentation — 8 equal 45° segments across the lunar cycle. New Moon straddles 0°/360°.
Statistical test — Pearson chi-square goodness-of-fit. H₀: each of 8 phases equally likely (12.5%). α = 0.05, df = 7. Large n makes this a high-power test.
- △Large-n sensitivity — With 147K records, the chi-square test detects even trivially small deviations. Statistical significance does not equal practical significance.
- △Reporting bias — Brighter nights may increase outdoor activity and observability, inflating sightings independent of actual UAP frequency.
- △No causal inference — Statistical correlation does not imply causation. This is exploratory analysis only.
NUFORC (National UFO Reporting Center) via Hugging Face (kcimc/NUFORC) + Sentient Orbs submissions. Original: nuforc.org
Julian Date method. Reference new moon: Jan 6 2000 18:14 UTC. Synodic period: 29.530589 days. All calculations performed locally.
Sentient Orbs does not claim ownership of third-party reports. Content displayed for research purposes only.
Steamboat Springs, CO, USA
Childs (near the Verde Hot Springs), AZ, USA
Beatty, OR, USA
Gabbs, NV, USA
Texas (empty desert), TX, USA
Keene Valley, NY, USA
Grand Rapids, MI, USA
Diamond Bar, CA, USA
Arlington, VT, USA
Everton, MO, USA
middlefield, CT, USA
Huntington Beach, CA, USA
Delaware, OH, USA
Caribou (rural Suburb of), ME, USA
Bristol, IN, USA
Acton, MA, USA
Plymouth, IN, USA
Rockford, MN, USA
Michigan City, IN, USA
San Leandro, CA, USA
Cartecay, GA, USA
Minneapolis, MN, USA
Portsmouth, NH, USA
Tomahawk, WI, USA
UK/Scotland, , United Kingdom
Scarborough (Canada), ON, Canada
Washburn, TN, USA
Mechanicsburg, PA, USA
Marthasville, MO, USA
Fairfield, CT, USA
Pleasenton, CA, USA
Whittier, CA, USA
Aurora, CO, USA
Federal Way/Auburn, WA, USA
Toronto (north of) (Canada), ON, Canada
So. Farmingdale, NY, USA
So. Farmingdale, NY, USA
Cerrillos, NM, USA
Albuquerque, NM, USA
Atwater, CA, USA
Stockholm (Sweden), , Sweden
Hamilton (Canada), ON, Canada
Hamilton (Canada), ON, Canada
Williamsburg, VA, USA
Grand Rapids, MI, USA
Edinburgh (UK/Scotland), , United Kingdom
Douglas (Canada), ON, Canada
Orlando, FL, USA
Douglas (Canada), ON, Canada
Houtzdale, PA, USA
Albuquerque, NM, USA
Huntington Beach, CA, USA
San Francisco, CA, USA
Glasgow (UK/Scotland), , United Kingdom
Korba, MP (India), , India
Auteuil (Canada), QC, Canada
Stockholm (Sweden), , Sweden
Roosevelt Roads (Puerto Rico), PR, USA
Placentia Jct. (Canada), NL, Canada
Greenville, MI, USA
St. Petersburg, FL, USA
Mayfield, KY, USA
Mt. Vernon, IL, USA
Hillsborough, CA, USA
Clarion, PA, USA
Calumet City, IL, USA
California Hotsprings, CA, USA
Brier Hill, PA, USA
Greenup (near), IL, USA
Stratford, TX, USA
Kekaha, HI, USA
Wixom, MI, USA
Federal Way, WA, USA
Toppenish, WA, USA
Marley Park, MD, USA
Glen Head, NY, USA
Carlsbad Cavrans (near), NM, USA
Indianapolis, IN, USA
Fenton, MI, USA
Woods Mid-NE, LA, USA
Anniston (Ft. McClellan U.S. Army base), AL, USA
Kitchener (Canada), ON, Canada
Staten Island, NY, USA
Cambridge, MA, USA
San Jose, CA, USA
Tuunajarvi (Finlnd), , Finland
Newmarket (Canada), ON, Canada
Lawrenceville, GA, USA
North Little Rock, AR, USA
Chopin, LA, USA
Accord, NY, USA
Arvada, CO, USA
Columbia, NC, USA
Interstate 65 (between AL and TN), AL, USA
Ridgefield, WA, USA
Topeka, KS, USA
Otis (Reservoir), MA, USA
Newport, OR, USA
Auburn, CA, USA
Gaithersburg, MD, USA
Newington, NH, USA
Sacramento, CA, USA
Medina, OH, USA
Arlington Heights, IL, USA
West Palm Beach, FL, USA
Cedar City (east of), UT, USA
Indiana (northern; outside sawmill), IN, USA
Chadwell St Mary (UK/England), , United Kingdom
Kodiak Island, AK, USA
Goldsboro, NC, USA
Fort Worth, TX, USA
Stillwater (west of), OK, USA
London ((UK/England), , United Kingdom
Napa, CA, USA
Santa Rosa, CA, USA
Stockton, CA, USA
Asheville, NC, USA
Showing 200 sampled records of 147,628 total analyzed